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拯救世界的是人,不是科技
拯救世界的是人,不是科技
拯救世界的是人,不是科技
拯救世界的是人,不是科技 首页 > 实木拼板
本文摘要:I have a copy of a long-forgotten 1987 book by Arthur C Clarke: July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century. I did not plan on mentioning it until the 50th anniversary of the first moon landings, which its title reflects. But I am breaking my own embargo because re-reading it has given me new insight.是我一本《2019年7月20日:生活在21世纪》(July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century)——此书为亚瑟?C?克拉克(Arthur C Clarke)著作,80年代图书发行,被别人消失已幸。

I have a copy of a long-forgotten 1987 book by Arthur C Clarke: July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century. I did not plan on mentioning it until the 50th anniversary of the first moon landings, which its title reflects. But I am breaking my own embargo because re-reading it has given me new insight.是我一本《2019年7月20日:生活在21世纪》(July 20, 2019: Life in the 21st century)——此书为亚瑟?C?克拉克(Arthur C Clarke)著作,80年代图书发行,被别人消失已幸。我曾想起登陆月球50周年纪念时再次驳回申诉这本书,由于小说名字反映的更是这一节日。但我超过了为自己设定的限令,由于轻轻这本书给了我新的观点。

Clarke, a science-fiction writer, was also no slouch as a futurologist. His fictional HAL 9000 computer in 2001: A Space Odyssey, which he co-wrote, presages many of today’s fears about artificial intelligence. He was also a real scientist who, in a 1945 article, proposed communications satellites.克拉克是奇幻小说文学家,也善于应验将来。他在与别人年出版发行的《2001:太空漫游》(2001: A Space Odyssey)一书里编造的HAL 9000电脑上,应验了现如今大家对人工智能技术不会有的许多焦虑。他也是一位的确的生物学家,曾在1945一篇文章里明确指出了通信卫星。

Unless things change in the next 23 months, July 20, 2019 is wrong in almost every detail. Clarke suggests, for example, “amplifiers” to make us more intelligent — but makes no mention of the internet, which was in development at the time and was predicted 15 years earlier by Joseph Licklider of MIT, when he was working at the US defence department.除非是接下去23月里状况产生变化,不然《2019年7月20日》类似在全部关键点上面拢了。例如,克拉克强调“放大仪”不容易使我们更聪慧,但没谈及那时候在产品研发中的互联网技术——而麻省理工大学(MIT)的约瑟夫?利克莱德(Joseph Licklider)在此书图书发行的十五年前就应验了互联网技术,那时候利克莱德在美国防部工作中。

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Being wrong is just one problem I have with Clarke’s book. Like most future-gazing, it sees tomorrow entirely in terms of technology.应验不正确仅仅我对克拉克这本书的在其中一个建议。和大部分将来应验一样,此书基本上从科技的角度来来看将来。Today’s version of Clarke’s vision is that of tech as humanity’s saviour. It is overblown, and it is gathering momentum. Indeed, this relentless yapping is like some overheated PR campaign for the arrogant, prematurely moneyed young lords of Silicon Valley. There is a messianic tone that our descendants will laugh at. “[By], say, 2045, we will have multiplied?.?.?.?the human biological machine intelligence of our civilisation a billion-fold,” says Google’s Ray Kurzweil.假如把克拉克的企业愿景搬到如今,那么就相当于宣扬科技是人类的救世。

这有点儿过度,现如今却在组成趋势。确实,这类絮絮叨叨就看上去一些尖酸刻薄、太早发家的美国硅谷公子哥的太过媒体公关宣传策划。她们具备那类救世的风格,大家的子孙后代认可不容易嘲笑。

“例如,到2045年,大家将把……大家文明行为的人类微生物设备智能化降低十亿倍,”Google(Google)的雷?库兹韦尔(Ray Kurzweil)答复。Technology is marvellous, but it has had little or nothing to do with the best things about the world. And it will play a minor role in casting out humanity’s worst demons: poverty, ignorance and madness. What do I mean by the best things? The outlawing of racism; rights for disabled people; emancipation for women. The primacy of reason; the dwindling of superstition. Democracy, social security, animal rights, greater life expectancy and, yes, capitalism.科技很简直。但它与这个世界最幸福快乐的东西没有什么关联。

它在逐出人类最差劲的恶魔(贫苦、孩子气和恐怖)上只不容易充分运用主次的具有。我所说的最幸福快乐的东西是啥?从法律法规上限令种族歧视;伤残人利益;女士友谊。客观平等主义;法术失势。

民主化、社会保障部、小动物利益、减少使用寿命,究竟,也有资产阶级。Sure, hygiene and medicine are technology, but the idea to distribute their benefits to all through innovations such as sewers, socialised medicine and refrigeration could only come from human empathy and creativity.自然,公共卫生服务和医药学属于科技的范围,可是要把他们的果实根据排污管道、社会性诊疗和冷冻散播给全人类,就不可以依靠人类的换位思考和想像力了。Technology, from electric lighting to washing machines to the internet, has aided progress. But it is only part of the future. Machines help solve the “how”, not the “what” nor the “why”.从灯泡到全自动洗衣机、再次到互联网技术,技术性拓张了人类转型。

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但科技仅仅将来的一部分罢了。设备帮助解决困难“如何做”,而不是“哪些”和“为何”。

I love what technology is doing for the developing world, where progress is most needed. I have written recently about ideas such as Ugogo Africa, a proposed online service that wants to enable artisans without bank accounts to sell their products globally. Genius. Even better for the developing world will be universal education, the elimination of corruption, the rule of law, perhaps democracy, although that is on my B-list. Technology will play its part, but it will not be essential.我讨厌科技对发展趋势中全球的帮助,那边最务必转型。我近期在文章内容中写到Ugogo Africa(一项在线客服提议,目地让没银行帐户的手艺人能够在全世界售卖她们的著作)等自主创新。感慨奇才好点子。

但对发展趋势中全球而言,更为幸福快乐的事情将是全民教育、防止贪污腐败、法制,或许也有民主政治,虽然最终这一点在我的B报表上。科技将充分运用自身的具有,但它并不是必不可少。Last week, I ran this seditious notion past two big brains. First was Marc Demarest, an Oregon-based digital thinker and author. He agrees that Silicon Valley’s incessant riff is self-serving. “Like the president of the US, no statement is too outrageous, too extreme, too under-nuanced,” he says.前不久,我向2个有观念的人明确指出这类感染力的见解。第一个是英国俄勒冈州的马可?德马雷斯特(Marc Demarest),他是一名智能化教育家和创作者。

他强调,美国硅谷人员源源不绝的严肃认真全是为了更好地个人得失。他称作:“如同对特朗普总统一样,对这些人而言,没有什么申明是过份、过度极端化、过度沒有水准的。”But he believes technology’s torrent of data tells us truths “minus our nasty predisposition to get distracted, to miss the moment, and to bend data to make it mean what we want it to mean”.但他强调科技的数据信息惊涛骇浪对他说大家幕后黑手,“乘于大家更非常容易犹豫、错过时期脉率、及其以大家期待的方法形变数据信息的偏重。”“It is in most respects a better version of us. And [gathering data] is mostly done, one way or another, to improve the human lot.”“在大部分层面,科技是我们自己的更优版本号。

(收集数据信息)大体上讲到是以某类方法完善了人类。”Making sense of data, however, will remain a human activity, he says. “We are better at judgm ent than any machine we will be able to make for a very long time to come. Technology is only the agent of our desires. It isn’t the future; we are the future.”殊不知,他称作,分析数据将仍然是人类活动。“在未来较长一段阶段,我们在判断能力上都是会不如大家有本事用上的一切机器。

高新科技仅仅大家渴望的代理。它并不是将来;大家才算是将来。”I then had a drink — several, actually — with a friend who works in product development for a tech company.接着,我与一位在科技有限公司产品研发商品的盆友喝过两杯。

“I shouldn’t say this,” she said after cocktail number three, “but we just make cool s*** people love. You’re right. We’re not progressing humanity or changing the world, are we? “That’s what ideas do, and machines don’t have ideas.”“我不会应那么说道,”她在喝下第三杯伏特加以后说,“但大家仅仅保证大家亲睐的时尚潮流废弃物货。你说道得究竟。

大家没拓张人们转型,也没变化全球,为什么会不是吗?那就是观念的人物角色,机器没观念。”Funny. Even Clarke stopped short of predicting machines with imaginations.有趣。就连沃尔特斯都不愿灵验不具有想像力的机器。


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